About the Author(s)
Hira Shafique is an ambitious scholar pursuing her BS in Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. As an emerging expert in international relations, she is particularly intrigued by Iran’s recent geopolitical developments and their implications for regional foreign policy dynamics.
In a historic election called soon after former President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash and marked by unprecedented voter apathy, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate, won the election against an ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili by gaining 16.3 million—53% compared to Jalili’s 13.5 million or 44% votes in runoff elections. The result of the elections is a clear challenge to regime hardliners and reflects a nation’s yearning for change amid an ongoing economic crisis and international isolation.
Pezeshkian, a former health minister and cardiac surgeon, has a different approach from former President Ebrahim Raisi. Now, the question arises of whether he would be able to change Iran’s future or if he would follow the policies of the late president. This paper will discuss the policies of the newly elected President. During his election campaign, Pezeshkian criticized the former president’s policies of moving closer to Eastern countries like China and Russia and declared that his foreign policy would not be anti-West nor anti-East. He believes the only way to resolve the country’s economic crisis is through negotiations with the West to end the nuclear standoff and ease the sanctions. Along with rapprochement towards the West and the revival of JCPOA, Pezeshkian has also promised to become the voice of the voiceless and support women’s freedom of choice by wearing the hijab in his campaign slogan. He also vowed to ease long-lasting internet restrictions.
As Pezeshkian takes over the office, the question arises: Can he navigate the treacherous waters of Iranian politics to fulfill his promises of moderation and engagement with the West? In Iran, the change of government does not mean that country’s foreign policy would also be changed completely, although the president has the power to formulate the foreign policy but has a limited role within the country’s political framework. The ultimate decision is made by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Bazoobandi, Heibach, and Richter conducted a statistical analysis study, which showed that Khamenei has a high degree of influence over foreign policy decision-making. The first challenge that Pezeshkian will face is related to his promise of forming good relations with the West, which involves reviving the JCPOA.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the unprecedented agreement signed by the P5+1 states, the European Union, and Iran in 2015. The purpose of the agreement was to discuss Iran’s nuclear capabilities and allow the IAEA to monitor Iran’s nuclear compliance. This agreement came into effect in 2016. Under that, sanctions were also lifted, providing Iran’s economy a chance to get back on track. However, in 2018, the US, under the Trump government, withdrew from the JCPOA agreement. Trump had already criticized the deal during his election campaign due to reasons like Iran’s ballistic missile program and Iran’s regional proxy policy, as the deal does not cover these issues.
Trump was also critical of Iran’s right to enrich uranium (be it limited) that the agreement provided. Iran did not immediately reciprocate after the US withdrew. Instead, it waited for a year known as “Strategic Patience”, after which it started to stop complying with some of the arrangements of the agreement like the Uranium Enrichment Limits. After the Trump government withdrew from the agreement, the Biden administration tried to restore agreement with the Rouhani government. But in June’s scheduled elections, Iran’s moderate government of Rouhani was replaced by a more conservative government of Ebrahim Raisi, which was less interested in reviving the JCPOA due to political constraints and valid alternatives like China and Russia. Pezeshkian, who became the president after Raisi’s death, in his campaign has said that to get Iran out of isolation, they need to form constructive relations with Western countries. He wanted to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other powers, which curbs Iran’s nuclear activity in favor of sanction relief. However, it would be difficult as the United States has scheduled elections this year, and there are high chances that Trump could return to power.
As Ali Vaez, Chief of the International Crisis Groups of Iran program, has said, “If you get 180-degree change between a Trump or a [current US president Joe] Biden administration on the general trajectory of the US, in Iran, with a change of presidency, you get a 45 percent difference – it’s not insignificant but not as impactful as in other countries”. As in Iran, the ultimate say is of Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has criticized the idea of revival of JCPOA or achieving prosperity through friendlier relations with the US as deluded, stating the fact that it was the US, not Iran, that had withdrawn. For Pezeshkian, convincing the Supreme Leader will not be easy, and he will also have to face serious challenges as the conservatives dominate most of the institutions like parliament.
The next issue relates to foreign policy as the Iranian foreign policy has a unique principle responsibility towards the Muslim world and views Iranian actions as an ideological duty. This includes an Anti-Zionist policy and Iran’s support for the “Axis of Resistance,” the Islamic resistance movement in the region. In context of Gaza issue Pezeshkian has urged the neighboring Arab countries to prioritize achieving a permanent ceasefire and to halt the conflict and prevent escalation, he advocates for collaboration and utilizing political and diplomatic influences. Pezeshkian has addressed that their priority is to strengthen relations with neighboring countries. He stated, “We will defend the establishment of a ‘strong region’ rather than one where a single country seeks hegemony and dominance over others.” He added, “I firmly believe that neighboring and brotherly nations should not squander their valuable resources on erosive competitions, arms races, or unjustified containment among themselves.” Additionally, his policy includes some of the policies, similar to late President Raisi’s policy of “good neighborliness”. Similarly, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has advised President Pezeshkian to continue the legacy of the late president.
The other challenge that Pezeshkian will face is to improve the economy. Iran is afflicted by staggering unemployment, increasing inflation, and a declining currency, which in return has worsened by persistent sanctions imposed by the US. Pezeshkian believes that there can be no development without sanctions relief and has suggested that he would engage in direct talks with the US on the issue of sanctions. Pezeshkian campaign indicated Iran’s interest in negotiations with Donald Trump in case he wins the election and returns to the White House. His online campaign stated that Trump, being a businessman, understands the language of trade, providing a potential basis for trade negotiations. However, the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has opposed direct talks. The president has to be obliged to make the decisions that Khamanei will take in conjunction with the Supreme National Security Council. The council is chaired by the President, but he does not control the council.
Pezeshkian has highlighted Iran’s commitment to stability and democratic processes during regional challenges in his column written in Tehran Times. He has also emphasized his mandate for constructive global engagement, unity, and reform. He has also pledged to uphold Iran’s national dignity and international stature. Regarding the relations with all nations, he has advocated for a balanced approach, particularly with neighboring countries, to foster regional cooperation and peace. In his column, he also values alliances with Russia, China, and other global partners. Finally, for a peaceful and prosperous future for all nations involved, he has called for international cooperation rooted in mutual respect and dialogue. Pezeshkian will join the office at the start of August, and the world will see what approach he actually adopts and whether he would be able to bring down the walls that have been built around the country by hardliners, as called by Pezeshkian. Though the President is the highest-ranking diplomat and can form the foreign policy, one important aspect of Iran’s policy is what the Quds forces do in the region. Only the Supreme Leader can decide their actions, which means that the President does not have power over them. On the other hand, the fate of promises claimed by Pezeshkian is vague; he will not only have to face external resistance but also internal pressure from the conservative hardliners.
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[1] Garrett Nada, “What You Need to Know about Iran’s Election and New President,” United States Institute of Peace, July 9, 2024, https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/07/what-you-need-know-about-irans-election-and-new-president.
[2] Kayvan Hosseini, “Iran: What to Expect from New President Masoud Pezeshkian,” BBC News, July 9, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn05x9lw3zwo.amp.
[3] Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrazi, “Iran under Masoud Pezeshkian: Aiming for Change without Rocking the Boat,” Chatam House, July 8, 2024.
[4] Sara Bazoobandi, Jens Heibach, and Thomas Richter, “Iran’s Foreign Policy Making: Consensus Building or Power Struggle?,” British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, March 16, 2023, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2023.2189572.
[5] Paul Kerr, “Iran Nuclear Agreement Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs,” 2016, https://www.sciencetheearth.com/uploads/2/4/6/5/24658156/irannucleardeal.pdf.
[6] Tom Sauer, “The Failed Negotiations to Restore the Iran Nuclear Deal,” Global Policy, May 2, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13387.
[7] Sauer, “The Failed Negotiations to Restore the Iran Nuclear Deal”,8.
[8] Virginia Pietromarchi, “Will Iran’s Foreign Policy Change under a New President?,” Al Jazeera, July 1, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/1/will-irans-foreign-policy-change-under-a-new-president.
[9] Hosseini, Iran: What to Expect from New President Masoud Pezeshkian”.
[10] “What Changes Are Expected under Iran’s New President?,” The Economic Times, July 8, 2024, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/what-changes-are-expected-under-irans-new-president/articleshow/111539687.cms?from=mdr.
[11] Xavier Villar, “Continuity and Change in Iran’s Strategic Culture,” Tehran Times, July 17, 2024, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/501240/Continuity-and-change-in-Iran-s-strategic-culture.
[12] Joaquin Matamis, “Early Signals after Iran’s Election Suggest More Continuity than Change • Stimson Center,” Stimson Center, July 10, 2024, https://www.stimson.org/2024/early-signals-after-irans-election-suggest-more-continuity-than-change/.
[13] Masoud Pezeshkian, “My Message to the New World,” Tehran Times, July 12, 2024, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/501077/My-message-to-the-new-world.
