About the Author(s)
Hassan Raza
Author is an undergraduate student of the University of Central Punjab, Lahore. He is currently studying international relations (IR). Furthermore, he have also worked with many non-governmental organizations for social services.
Introduction:
Ever since the October 7 attack on Israel conducted by Hamas during & the Jewish Religious holiday of Simchat Torah, the Middle East has been on the brink of military escalation by multiple parties. Hamas’ Qassam brigade carried out a blitzkrieg assault on a music festival near the south of the Gaza border, resulting in 1,139 civilian casualties and the abduction of 240 civilians.
However, Hamas later recognized its faults for attacking civilians and highlighted civilian casualties as accidents in a 16-page report issued by Hamas to clarify the background and dynamics of the October 7 attack. In the report, Hamas justified their actions by stating that “the battle of the Palestinian people against occupation and colonialism did not start on October 7, but started 105 years ago, including 30 years of British colonialism and 75 years of Zionist occupation”.
Meanwhile, an Israeli Military Force (IDF) combat helicopter that arrived on the scene from Ramat David’s base fired at Hamas soldiers, which resulted in collateral damage, according to an investigation carried out by Israeli police.
October 7 attack resulted in a global outcry against Hamas’ horrendous act. Israel used this attack as casus belli (an excuse to initiate a war) to pound Gaza and vowed to eradicate Hamas once and for all. Israel’s subsequent response to Gaza has resulted in the death of 40,637 civilians, 91,280 injured, and millions displaced in Gaza. Though, October 7 attack also shattered the myth of complete security of Israel despite building a wall with high security presence with Gaza border.
After observing a ferocious response from Israel, it appears Netanyahu deemed such a situation as the moment after the war cabinet dissolves. He is bound to face corruption charges in Israeli courts to which he is desperate to clip its wings. Netanyahu’s bid to overhaul Israel’s judiciary have seriously produced rifts among civilian and military top brass, as prolonged war at this moment will benefit his rein, especially when far-right elements are supporting his warmongering rhetoric.
The high toll In civilian causalities has attracted widespread criticism of Israel’s approach towards Gaza; in addition, it has attracted some European nations to recognize Palestine, and a few countries American countries cut their ties with Israel.
Since the Hamas–Israel war started, there has been an exchange of military response not just from Hamas and Israel but from Iran-led proxy groups that include Hezbollah from Lebanon and Houthis from Yemen.
Israel has conducted airstrikes against military commanders and Iran-led proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. On the other US and UK have also joined air-striking Houthis in response to blocking the Bab–elMandeb strait for cargo ships that were en route to Israel and attacking American military ships. This military escalation from Iran-led proxies and Israel with immense military support from the US and the European allies.
Amid the escalating situation, Moscow is closely monitoring the situation due to its close ties with Iran and Syria. Though it will not directly engage but it will protect its indispensable interest in the Middle East which is mostly present with Assad being in power. Moscow has its military installations in Syria to protect its interests in the Middle East, which is essential for Russia to project its influence to Africa through the Wagner group. Furthermore, the Russian military naval port in Tartous, Syria, is unambiguously important for Moscow to monitor naval activity in the Mediterranean Sea and Africa.
Israel is edging dangerously close to brinkmanship:
On April 1st, 2024, Israel led an air strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria violating its diplomatic premise and immunity under VCDR 1961 (Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations). The attack killed seven of Iran’s military advisors and three senior military commanders.
This attack initiated Iran’s right to reprisal against Israel, which is according to norms and international law under Article 51 of the UN that allows a member state the inherent right of self-defense against armed attack. Later, Iran responded with Operation True Promise on 14th April by launching high-profile hundred of missiles and drones from Hezbollah, Iraq, and Iran, all heading towards Israel.
Though, Iran’s sheer response did not impacted Israel in huge calamity but it showed Israel that Iran is willing to protect its sovereignty at all cost. Israel’s miscalculation on attacking Iran’s embassy not only made Israel bulls eye to Iran’s response but it also smeared image of regional allies and west globally.
Israel yet again deliberately led another limited attack as response to operation true promise on an Iranian military base in Isfahan province targeting air defense systems demonstrates Israel’s deterrence policy through punishment.
Such rhetoric is not heeding the lessons of Israel’s Prime Minister Ben Guerin who emphasized best remedy to weakness is to strengthen social cohesion, foster diplomatic ties and pursue peace. Israel is heading towards wrong directions at all fronts.
Such policy will only galvanize Iran’s plans to acquire nuclear weapons that will automatically trigger regional arms race as regional players will not tolerate nuclear weapons in the hands of their biggest adversary.
Israel’s attacks on High Value Targets:
Since the onset of Israel’s military campaign, the region has experienced a series of calculated strikes against senior military high-profile targets, which has further intensified the conflict. Most notably the assassination of Fuad Shukar, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Hamas’ deputy leader Saleh-al Arouri in Beirut, Hamas’ senior leader Marwar Issa in a Gaza strike, and the killing of legendary Hamas commander Muhammad Deif in an air raid on Gaza, according to Israel officials.
All these assassinations have made the Middle East a potential powder keg that, will explode at any moment, involving regional as well as global power by supporting its allies and protecting their interests in the region.
Israel has defended its actions due to the involvement of these individuals in planning strategic attacks against Israel over the years. These risky assassinations in hope to restore deterrence will further escalate the situation.
These individuals were veteran high-value targets who commanded elite brigades of Hamas and Hezbollah. Furthermore, among them was Mohammad Deif. A legendary commander who planned sophisticated tunnel systems that have proved to be a headache to IDF and overseeing military operations in the West Bank.
Qatar, with the support of Western powers, is pushing for a truce between Israel and Hamas, but Israel-led assassinations and constant discovery of new areas to prolong the war are acting as a bulwark against a potential truce. This rhetoric has not only triggered global protests against Israel’s campaign in Gaza, but within Israel; its citizens are also protesting to end the military campaign, bring back hostages and face the charges as trust in government is deteriorating.
Despite pleasing Israeli far-right nationals, citizens have debunked Netanyahu’s plan to prolong the war to shield himself from prosecution, which is why he must involve international players that will secure his freedom.
Netanyahu’s obsession is casually driving Israel to a point of no return as Israel’s military is already showing signs of exhaustion from failed Gaza campaign. While these assassinations can open a much wider and more catastrophic regional conflict with other proxy elements and possibly with Iran.
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran:
The final nail in the coffin hit when Israel assassinated Hamas-led negotiator and senior political leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31st August in Tehran. Haniyeh was invited to attend the oath ceremony of Iran’s new President, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was assassinated during his stay at a heavily defended guest house by launching a short-range projectile toward it. With Haniyeh’s assassination, it is clear that Israel is in no mood to end its military campaign, but instead, it wants International powers such as the US to jump into the situation.
Other major powers, such as China, have emphasized de-escalating the heating situation in Western Asia. Whereas the European Union has called for “Maximum restraint” after the assassination of Haniyeh to avoid turmoil as military escalation might deteriorate the fragile hope of a ceasefire in Gaza. In response to a tense situation, embassies of different countries are warming their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately following the threat of possible military escalation.
Haniyeh’s assassination not only dashed the possibility of a truce but also undermined Iran’s intelligence capability and highlighted critical security lapses in the capital. Before confirmation from IRGC, reports surfaced regarding the assassination taking place in the guesthouse via a smuggled bomb 2 months ago. Regardless of the medium of assassination, these security lapses have angered Tehran, and it will seek a repose from Israel.
Even after the killing of Ismail, a question here arises: Is Iran willing to wage a sheer response to the supported and diplomatically backed Israel for the political head of his proxy group? Isn’t a sheer kinetic response exactly what Netanyahu wants that may escalate the conflict to shield himself from Israeli courts? Or maybe Iran will sweep this dilemma under the carpet by reciprocity?. Independent of what outcomes or attention may be, the Middle East is on the brink of military escalation, and in the end, it is always innocent civilians who pay the price.
Following the assassination, Iran has prepared its proxies and IRGC for a strong collective kinetic response against Israel. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has stated In a televised address that, “Israelis will weep terribly”.
The US military has ramped up its presence in the Middle East with the aim of safeguarding Israel in the region. US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin ordered to deploy additional combat aircraft and warships in the Mediterranean Sea, demonstrating the commitment to preventing any potential military actions in response to recent assassination. Additionally, Israel is in discussions with neighboring countries to bolster its air-defense capabilities in line with the objectives of Operation True Promise. The commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) visited Jordan and Israel, affirming the ongoing preparations and cooperation in maintaining regional stability.
Furthermore, Russia is poised to arm Tehran with defensive weapons that are aimed to protect Russia’s strategic partner against any possible counter attack from Israel. Iran remains an important strategic partner to Moscow for its close military cooperation and supply of loitering munition against Ukrainian forces. Though, the question here still remains that, “Will Tehran go all out attack against Israel for assassinating his proxy?”.
The answer remains skeptical and but an attack from any of the actor will met with retaliatory response. The situation remains nadir for both sides and their rhetoric are costing thousands of innocent civilian lives in middle east and at this crucial moment, talks for potential truce remains indispensable.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the conflict in the Middle East poses a great threat to regional and global stability. The international community and, most importantly, Middle Eastern nations must pressure Netanyahu and his far-right fellow travelers to double down on pushing military escalation in the Middle East. Any possible escalation will result in a great loss of life and a zero-sum game.
Above all, international organizations and regional players must collectively put immense pressure on the US and other Western nations to stop arming Israel and keeping a blind eye towards Israel’s rhetoric as all-out war in the Middle East. It will result not just in the participation of international powers but severe global energy crisis that will directly impact global trade production during a looming threat of possible global recession. Furthermore, peace among Palestinians and neighboring states can truly present peace in the region.
